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    Canonfire :: View topic - Odd questions, number of births
    Canonfire Forum Index -> World of Greyhawk Discussion
    Odd questions, number of births
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    Apprentice Greytalker

    Joined: Jun 20, 2003
    Posts: 21
    From: San Diego

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    Mon May 15, 2006 10:03 pm  
    Odd questions, number of births

    On any given day how many kids would be born in the city of Greyhawk?
    Journeyman Greytalker

    Joined: Aug 12, 2001
    Posts: 187
    From: Hanover Park

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    Tue May 16, 2006 12:51 pm  
    I think this is how it works...

    If you assume a population of 60,000 and a birth rate of (let's say) 10%, then you get 6,000 births per year, which divides to 16 births per day.
    Master Greytalker

    Joined: May 12, 2005
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    From: Woonsocket, RI, USA

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    Tue May 16, 2006 2:31 pm  
    Re: I think this is how it works...

    Scottenkainen wrote:
    If you assume a population of 60,000 and a birth rate of (let's say) 10%, then you get 6,000 births per year, which divides to 16 births per day.


    Keep in mind, though, that the current US birth rate is in the 12% range. 10% seems awfully high.
    Master Greytalker

    Joined: Aug 17, 2004
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    From: Computer Desk

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    Tue May 16, 2006 6:32 pm  

    I have no stats but wouldn't the medieval setting encourage a larger birth rate within families add to the societial factors the higher infant surivial rate possible due to clerical and magical resources available.

    Especially after the wars, the states should be encouraging a baby boom to help recover there population.
    Master Greytalker

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    Tue May 16, 2006 10:27 pm  

    Well, the highest birthrates in the modern world are in the 40 to 50 per 1000 persons range annually. Those are found in countries like Niger and Afghanistan. The United States is about 14 per 1000. A lot of European countries, many of which have negative population growth rates, are running around 8 or 9 per 1000.

    I suspect that the 4-5% top rate in the real world is probably about the same as you would find in rural fantasy worlds as well. Urban populations would *tend* to have a somewhat lower birth rate as the value of large families is much less in Greyhawk City than in rural Veluna.

    I'd say it would be reasonable to expect around a 2% birth rate in Greyhawk City, maybe a bit higher.
    Apprentice Greytalker

    Joined: Jan 05, 2003
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    From: Midwood in Geoff

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    Wed May 17, 2006 3:54 am  
    births

    That is also assuming an all human society. There was a discussion in a recent thread about demi-human birth rates (most of which are much lower than humans). So if you have any large number of non-humans in any one city, the birth rate (per day) would probably go down.
    Master Greytalker

    Joined: Jan 05, 2002
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    From: Sky Island, So Cal

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    Wed May 17, 2006 6:16 am  

    What also strongly affects birth rate is the age of marriage. That is not immediately obvious but it is very powerful. Even if the number of births per female is constant, populations will grow faster when women have children younger. A population where on aveage every woman has three children when she is between 15 and 25 will grow at roughly double the rate of a population where a woman has three children, but has them between the ages of 30 and 45.

    The decline in population growth of the modern industrialized countries is is in part due to the lowering in children per family, but it is also due to the increase in age at which women have their children.

    The agricultural revolution and then industrial revolution in England resulted in a huge population boom, precipitated mostly from people getting married younger. In many traditional agricultural settings, children delay marriage well into adulthood to stay on the family farm, helping their parents. They do not have the resources to buy or settle their own farm, and early marriage would mean dividing family property into estates that are too small to support families. An increase in prosperity and non-agricultural jobs means people can get married younger.

    So, while I agree that families might be smaller in Greyhawk City, the city cash economy might mean younger mothers and higher birthrates as well.


    One also has to factor in the availability of birth control (pre-conception or post conception), whether magical or herbal. That is a topic I think is crying to be explored: how do the different faiths of the Flaneass feel about women controling their fertility?
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    Apprentice Greytalker

    Joined: Jul 22, 2005
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    From: Orland Hills, Illinois

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    Thu May 18, 2006 7:59 am  

    In WOG boxed set the population of the city proper was 58,000 in CY576
    In the LGG the population of the city proper was 69,500 in CY591
    This is a net increase of 11,500, 19.82% over the 15 year period. I am not a math whiz. Yes I know that they were written by differen people with perhaps a different take on how to present GH. Kirt and Crag, assuming that those figures are an accurate representation the populations at those two times, does this change the number of births per day or any other figures?
    Master Greytalker

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    Thu May 18, 2006 9:11 am  

    Population growth of 20% in 15 years is a clear indication of significant immigration. Presumably folks from war ravaged parts of Furyondy and the Wild Coast have moved to Greyhawk city in the interval.
    Master Greytalker

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    Thu May 18, 2006 1:35 pm  

    There were also significant numbers of Shield Landers, Tenhas and Nyrondese refugees in the city after the Wars. Some of these may have gone home or been resettled in outlying areas, but that wouldn't have got rid of all of them.
    Master Greytalker

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    Fri May 26, 2006 4:16 pm  

    The increase given, 58000 to 69500 in 15 years, is only an r of 0.012. Or, if you prefer, a growth rate of 1.2%. That is strong, but not unreasonable for humans.

    As others have said, it *should* include the massive immigration from the Wars, so one hopes that the rate is higher than that of the other countries.

    A further historical complication is that most cities were sustained by immigration from the countryside. That is, death rates were often higher than birth rates and cities only grew from constant immigration - lef tto themselves, most cities from ancient, middle ages, and renaisance would have declined. The principle reson was high death rates. Cities were notoriously dangerous, between disease, violance, and fires. City-dwellers typically had significantly lower life expectancies than rural dwellers.

    How much you want that to affect Greyhawk depends on your campaign style: if clerical healing and a public fire brigade of water elementalists exist, death rates may not be so high. Of course, these may be ofset by the cultists of Incabulous, Nerull, and Pyremius.

    I would agree with others that a 2% or even 3% birth rate would be the maximum. This yields four or five births per day. If you want to get more complicated, you could have seasonal or even monthly peaks and valleys in the rates.

    Perhaps if you explained why you wish to know this, more comments would be forthcoming.
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    Apprentice Greytalker

    Joined: Jun 20, 2003
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    From: San Diego

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    Fri May 26, 2006 4:50 pm  
    Why I asked

    I'm finishing up my 3 year long Campaign and currently the Bastion of Souls is being drained dry, meaning the that currently children are being still born across the world. The heroes are based out of the City of GH so I was wondering how much it wold effect thier home town.
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