I have no stats but wouldn't the medieval setting encourage a larger birth rate within families add to the societial factors the higher infant surivial rate possible due to clerical and magical resources available.
Especially after the wars, the states should be encouraging a baby boom to help recover there population.
Well, the highest birthrates in the modern world are in the 40 to 50 per 1000 persons range annually. Those are found in countries like Niger and Afghanistan. The United States is about 14 per 1000. A lot of European countries, many of which have negative population growth rates, are running around 8 or 9 per 1000.
I suspect that the 4-5% top rate in the real world is probably about the same as you would find in rural fantasy worlds as well. Urban populations would *tend* to have a somewhat lower birth rate as the value of large families is much less in Greyhawk City than in rural Veluna.
I'd say it would be reasonable to expect around a 2% birth rate in Greyhawk City, maybe a bit higher.
That is also assuming an all human society. There was a discussion in a recent thread about demi-human birth rates (most of which are much lower than humans). So if you have any large number of non-humans in any one city, the birth rate (per day) would probably go down.
What also strongly affects birth rate is the age of marriage. That is not immediately obvious but it is very powerful. Even if the number of births per female is constant, populations will grow faster when women have children younger. A population where on aveage every woman has three children when she is between 15 and 25 will grow at roughly double the rate of a population where a woman has three children, but has them between the ages of 30 and 45.
The decline in population growth of the modern industrialized countries is is in part due to the lowering in children per family, but it is also due to the increase in age at which women have their children.
The agricultural revolution and then industrial revolution in England resulted in a huge population boom, precipitated mostly from people getting married younger. In many traditional agricultural settings, children delay marriage well into adulthood to stay on the family farm, helping their parents. They do not have the resources to buy or settle their own farm, and early marriage would mean dividing family property into estates that are too small to support families. An increase in prosperity and non-agricultural jobs means people can get married younger.
So, while I agree that families might be smaller in Greyhawk City, the city cash economy might mean younger mothers and higher birthrates as well.
One also has to factor in the availability of birth control (pre-conception or post conception), whether magical or herbal. That is a topic I think is crying to be explored: how do the different faiths of the Flaneass feel about women controling their fertility? _________________ My campaigns are multilayered tapestries upon which I texture themes and subject matter which, quite frankly, would simply be too strong for your hobbyist gamer. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Mp7Ikko8SI
In WOG boxed set the population of the city proper was 58,000 in CY576
In the LGG the population of the city proper was 69,500 in CY591
This is a net increase of 11,500, 19.82% over the 15 year period. I am not a math whiz. Yes I know that they were written by differen people with perhaps a different take on how to present GH. Kirt and Crag, assuming that those figures are an accurate representation the populations at those two times, does this change the number of births per day or any other figures?
Population growth of 20% in 15 years is a clear indication of significant immigration. Presumably folks from war ravaged parts of Furyondy and the Wild Coast have moved to Greyhawk city in the interval.
There were also significant numbers of Shield Landers, Tenhas and Nyrondese refugees in the city after the Wars. Some of these may have gone home or been resettled in outlying areas, but that wouldn't have got rid of all of them.
The increase given, 58000 to 69500 in 15 years, is only an r of 0.012. Or, if you prefer, a growth rate of 1.2%. That is strong, but not unreasonable for humans.
As others have said, it *should* include the massive immigration from the Wars, so one hopes that the rate is higher than that of the other countries.
A further historical complication is that most cities were sustained by immigration from the countryside. That is, death rates were often higher than birth rates and cities only grew from constant immigration - lef tto themselves, most cities from ancient, middle ages, and renaisance would have declined. The principle reson was high death rates. Cities were notoriously dangerous, between disease, violance, and fires. City-dwellers typically had significantly lower life expectancies than rural dwellers.
How much you want that to affect Greyhawk depends on your campaign style: if clerical healing and a public fire brigade of water elementalists exist, death rates may not be so high. Of course, these may be ofset by the cultists of Incabulous, Nerull, and Pyremius.
I would agree with others that a 2% or even 3% birth rate would be the maximum. This yields four or five births per day. If you want to get more complicated, you could have seasonal or even monthly peaks and valleys in the rates.
Perhaps if you explained why you wish to know this, more comments would be forthcoming. _________________ My campaigns are multilayered tapestries upon which I texture themes and subject matter which, quite frankly, would simply be too strong for your hobbyist gamer. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Mp7Ikko8SI
I'm finishing up my 3 year long Campaign and currently the Bastion of Souls is being drained dry, meaning the that currently children are being still born across the world. The heroes are based out of the City of GH so I was wondering how much it wold effect thier home town.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
Canonfire! is a production of the Thursday Group in assocation with GREYtalk and Canonfire! Enterprises
